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Multiyear prediction of monthly mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5°N
Matei, D.; Baehr, J.; Jungclaus, J.H.; Haak, H.; Müller, W.A.; Marotzke, J. (2012). Multiyear prediction of monthly mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5°N. Science (Wash.) 335(6064): 76-79. https://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1210299
In: Science (Washington). American Association for the Advancement of Science: New York, N.Y. ISSN 0036-8075; e-ISSN 1095-9203, meer
Peer reviewed article  
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  • Matei, D.
  • Baehr, J.
  • Jungclaus, J.H.
  • Haak, H.
  • Müller, W.A.
  • Marotzke, J.
Abstract
    Attempts to predict changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) have yielded little success to date. Here, we demonstrate predictability for monthly mean AMOC strength at 26.5 degrees N for up to 4 years in advance. This AMOC predictive skill arises predominantly from the basin-wide upper-mid-ocean geostrophic transport, which in turn can be predicted because we have skill in predicting the upper-ocean zonal density difference. Ensemble forecasts initialized between January 2008 and January 2011 indicate a stable AMOC at 26.5 degrees N until at least 2014, despite a brief wind-induced weakening in 2010. Because AMOC influences many aspects of climate, our results establish AMOC as an important potential carrier of climate predictability.
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