Zoeken
Zoeken kan via de modus 'eenvoudig zoeken' (één veld) of uitgebreid via 'geavanceerd zoeken' (meerdere velden). Zo kan je bv. zoeken op een combinatie van een auteursnaam (auteur), een jaartal (jaar) en een documenttype.
Boekenmand
Nuttige resultaten kan je aanvinken en toevoegen aan een mandje. De inhoud hiervan kan je exporteren of afdrukken (naar bv. PDF).
RSS
Op de hoogte blijven van nieuw toegevoegde publicaties binnen uw interessegebied? Dit kan door een RSS-feed (?) te maken van jouw zoekopdracht.
nieuwe zoekopdracht
Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability
Booth, B.B.; Dunstone, N.J.; Halloran, P.R.; Andrews, T.; Bellouin, N. (2012). Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability. Nature (Lond.) 484(7393): 228-232. dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature10946
In: Nature: International Weekly Journal of Science. Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 0028-0836; e-ISSN 1476-4687, meer
|  |
| Auteurs | | Top |
- Booth, B.B.
- Dunstone, N.J.
- Halloran, P.R.
|
|
|
| Abstract |
Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean1. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity and African Sahel and Amazonian droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860–2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910–1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol–cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol–cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions. |
IMIS is ontwikkeld en wordt gehost door het VLIZ.
