In this paper, an integrated numerical and fuzzy cellular automata model was developed to predict possible algal blooms in Dutch coastal waters basing on the irradiance, nutrients and neighbourhood conditions. The numerical module used Delft3D-WAQ to compute the abiotic conditions, and fuzzy cellular automata approach was applied to predict the algal biomass that was indicated by chlorophyll a concentration. The simulated results of year 1995 were compared with that from BLOOM II model, and the advantages, disadvantages as well as future improvement were presented. In general, through this study, it is seen that the integrated modelling deserves more research inputs because: (1) the hydrodynamic processes and nutrients concentrations can be simulated in details by numerical method; (2) the irregular and sparse water quality and biological data, and the empirical knowledge from experts can be explored by the fuzzy logic technique; (3) the spatial heterogeneity, local interactions and the emerge of patchiness could be well captured through the cellular automata paradigm. |
