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Projected change - atmosphere
May, W.; Ganske, A.; Leckebusch, G.C.; Rockel, B.; Tinz, B.; Ulbrich, U. (2016). Projected change - atmosphere, in: Quante, M. et al. North Sea region climate change assessment. Regional Climate Studies, : pp. 149-173. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-39745-0_5
In: Quante, M.; Colijn, F. (Ed.) (2016). North Sea region climate change assessment. Regional Climate Studies. Springer: Switzerland. ISBN 978-3-319-39743-6. xlv, 528 pp.
In: Regional Climate Studies. Springer: Berlin. ISSN 1862-0248; e-ISSN 1865-505X
Peer reviewed article  
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  • May, W.
  • Ganske, A.
  • Leckebusch, G.C.
  • Rockel, B.
  • Tinz, B.
  • Ulbrich, U.
Abstract
    Several aspects describing the state of the atmosphere in the North Sea region are considered in this chapter. These include large-scale circulation, means and extremes in temperature and precipitation, cyclones and winds, and radiation and clouds. The climate projections reveal several pronounced future changes in the state of the atmosphere in the North Sea region, both in the free atmosphere and near the surface: amplification and an eastward shift in the pattern of NAO variability in autumn and winter; changes in the storm track with increased cyclone density over western Europe in winter and reduced cyclone density on the southern flank in summer; more frequent strong winds from westerly directions and less frequent strong winds from south-easterly directions; marked mean warming of 1.7–3.2 °C for different scenarios, with stronger warming in winter than in summer and a relatively strong warming over southern Norway; more intense extremes in daily maximum temperature and reduced extremes in daily minimum temperature, both in strength and frequency; an increase in mean precipitation during the cold season and a reduction during the warm season; a pronounced increase in the intensity of heavy daily precipitation events, particularly in winter; a considerable increase in the intensity of extreme hourly precipitation in summer; an increase (decrease) in cloud cover in the northern (southern) part of the North Sea region, resulting in a decrease (increase) in net solar radiation at the surface.
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