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Detecting flood variations in Shanghai over 1949-2009 with Mann-Kendall tests and a newspaper-bases database
Du, S.; Gu, H.; Wen, J.; Chen, K.; Van Rompaey, A. (2015). Detecting flood variations in Shanghai over 1949-2009 with Mann-Kendall tests and a newspaper-bases database. Water 7(5): 1808-1824. https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w7051808
In: Water. MDPI: Basel. ISSN 2073-4441; e-ISSN 2073-4441, meer
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| Author keywords |
newspapers; disaster database; flood; waterlogging; Mann-Kendall tests |
| Abstract |
A valuable aid to assessing and managing flood risk lies in a reliable database of historical floods. In this study, a newspaper-based flood database for Shanghai (NFDS) for the period 1949-2009 was developed through a systematic scanning of newspapers. After calibration and validation of the database, Mann-Kendall tests and correlation analysis were applied to detect possible changes in flood frequencies. The analysis was carried out for three different flood types: overbank flood, agricultural waterlogging, and urban waterlogging. The compiled NFDS registered 146 floods and 92% of them occurred in the flood-prone season from June to September. The statistical analyses showed that both the annual flood and the floods in June-August increased significantly. Urban waterlogging showed a very strong increasing trend, probably because of insufficient capacity of urban drainage system and impacts of rapid urbanization. By contrast, the decrease in overbank flooding and the slight increase in agricultural waterlogging were likely because of the construction of river levees and seawalls and the upgrade of agricultural drainage systems, respectively. This study demonstrated the usefulness of local newspapers in building a historical flood database and in assessing flood characterization. |
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