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Zonally contrasting shifts of the tropical rain belt in response to climate change
Mamalakis, A.; Randerson, J.T.; Yu, J.-Y.; Pritchard, M.S.; Magnusdottir, G.; Smyth, P.; Levine, P.A.; Yu, S.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E. (2021). Zonally contrasting shifts of the tropical rain belt in response to climate change. Nat. Clim. Chang. 11(2): 143-151. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00963-x
In: Nature Climate Change. Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 1758-678X; e-ISSN 1758-6798
Peer reviewed article  
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  • Mamalakis, A.
  • Randerson, J.T.
  • Yu, J.-Y.
  • Pritchard, M.S.
  • Magnusdottir, G.
  • Smyth, P.
  • Levine, P.A.
  • Yu, S.
  • Foufoula-Georgiou, E.
Abstract
    Future changes in the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ; a narrow band of heavy precipitation in the tropics) with climate change could affect the livelihood and food security of billions of people. Although models predict a future narrowing of the ITCZ, uncertainties remain large regarding its future position, with most past work focusing on zonal-mean shifts. Here we use projections from 27 state-of-the-art climate models and document a robust zonally varying ITCZ response to the SSP3-7.0 scenario by 2100, with a northward shift over eastern Africa and the Indian Ocean and a southward shift in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The zonally varying response is consistent with changes in the divergent atmospheric energy transport and sector-mean shifts of the energy flux equator. Our analysis provides insight about mechanisms influencing the future position of the tropical rain belt and may allow for more-robust projections of climate change impacts.
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