Publicaties | Kaarten

nieuwe zoekopdracht

[ meld een fout in dit record ]mandje (0): toevoegen | toon Print deze pagina
Improved simulation of 19th- and 20th-century North Atlantic hurricane frequency after correcting historical sea surface temperatures
Chan, D.; Vecchi, G.A.; Yang, W.; Huybers, P. (2021). Improved simulation of 19th- and 20th-century North Atlantic hurricane frequency after correcting historical sea surface temperatures. Science Advances 7(26): eabg6931. https://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abg6931
In: Science Advances. AAAS: New York. ISSN 2375-2548; e-ISSN 2375-2548
Peer reviewed article  
Beschikbaar in  Auteurs 
Auteurs  Top 
  • Chan, D.
  • Vecchi, G.A.
  • Yang, W.
  • Huybers, P.
Abstract
    Confidence in dynamical and statistical hurricane prediction is rooted in the skillful reproduction of hurricane frequency using sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, but an ensemble of high-resolution atmospheric simulation extending to the 1880s indicates model-data disagreements that exceed those expected from documented uncertainties. We apply recently developed corrections for biases in historical SSTs that lead to revisions in tropical to subtropical SST gradients by ±0.1°C. Revised atmospheric simulations have 20% adjustments in the decadal variations of hurricane frequency and become more consistent with observations. The improved simulation skill from revised SST estimates not only supports the utility of high-resolution atmospheric models for hurricane projections but also highlights the need for accurate estimates of past and future patterns of SST changes.
Alle informatie in het Integrated Marine Information System (IMIS) valt onder het VLIZ Privacy beleid Top | Auteurs 
IMIS is ontwikkeld en wordt gehost door het VLIZ.