Mangrove ecosystems are well-adapted to living in a dynamic and harsh environment and have survived catastrophic climate events since their first appearance 66 Mya along Tethys Sea shores. There have been past episodes of localized extinction due mostly to abrupt, rapid rises in sea-level. Living at the edge between land and sea, mangrove ecosystems are inclined to be resilient to environmental disturbance, such as highly variable changes in salinity, solar insolation, temperature, tidal inundation, freshwater inputs, and sea-level. Based on current knowledge of mangrove responses to environmental change, mangroves in subsiding river deltas, on low Pacific and Caribbean islands, and in the arid tropics are likely to decline in area, biodiversity, forest structure, and function into the Anthropocene. Mangrove forests will continue to expand latitudinally along the Gulf of Mexico, the east coast of Florida, the coasts of South Africa, eastern Australia, northern New Zealand, south eastern Brazil, and China. Regions that experience tropical storms or other extreme events, as in northern Australia, the Gulf of Mexico, the east India coast, Florida, the Philippines, south China coast, and the northern Caribbean, mangroves will likely suffer increased damage, destruction, and loss. The east coast of Sumatra, north coast of Java, Sulawesi, and southern Vietnam are likely to lose mangroves because of their low tidal range. Mangroves in other parts of Southeast Asia may response positively to increased rainfall and warmer temperatures, as on the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia and the southwest coast of Thailand. Mangroves will likely respond positively or exhibit no significant change along the tropical west and north coasts of South America and the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of Central America. Globally, mangroves are likely to survive, perhaps in altered states, into the next century. |
