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Regional variations in relative sea-level changes influenced by nonlinear vertical land motion
Oelsmann, J.; Marcos, M.; Passaro, M.; Sanchez, L.; Dettmering, D.; Dangendorf, S.; Seitz, F. (2024). Regional variations in relative sea-level changes influenced by nonlinear vertical land motion. Nature Geoscience 17(2): 137-144. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01357-2
In: Nature Geoscience. Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 1752-0894; e-ISSN 1752-0908
Peer reviewed article  
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  • Oelsmann, J.
  • Marcos, M.
  • Passaro, M.
  • Sanchez, L.
  • Dettmering, D.
  • Dangendorf, S.
  • Seitz, F.
Abstract
    Vertical land movements can cause regional relative sea-level changes to differ substantially from climate-driven absolute sea-level changes. Whereas absolute sea level has been accurately monitored by satellite altimetry since 1992, there are limited observations of vertical land motion. Vertical land motion is generally modelled as a linear process, despite some evidence of nonlinear motion associated with tectonic activity, changes in surface loading or groundwater extraction. As a result, the temporal evolution of vertical land motion, and its contribution to projected sea-level rise and its uncertainty, remains unresolved. Here we generate a probabilistic vertical land motion reconstruction from 1995 to 2020 to determine the impact of regional-scale and nonlinear vertical land motion on relative sea-level projections up to 2150. We show that regional variations in projected coastal sea-level changes are equally influenced by vertical land motion and climate-driven processes, with vertical land motion driving relative sea-level changes of up to 50 cm by 2150. Accounting for nonlinear vertical land motion increases the uncertainty in projections by up to 1 m on a regional scale. Our results highlight the uncertainty in future coastal impacts and demonstrate the importance of including nonlinear vertical land motions in sea-level change projections.
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