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Tidal propagation in an estuary under sea level rise and morphological evolutions: a sensitvity analysis Meire, D.; Vos, G.; Vanlede, J.; Stark, J. (2025). Tidal propagation in an estuary under sea level rise and morphological evolutions: a sensitvity analysis, in: Oosterlee, L. et al. Book of abstracts - ECSA Focus Meeting 2025 Estuarine Restoration: From theory to practice, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium 19-23 May 2025. pp. 97 In: Oosterlee, L.; Schoelynck, J. (Ed.) (2025). Book of abstracts - ECSA Focus Meeting 2025 Estuarine Restoration: From theory to practice, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium 19-23 May 2025. University of Antwerp: Wilrijk. 106 pp., meer

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Beschikbaar in	Auteurs
Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium: Open Repository 414211 [ OWA ]
Documenttype: Congresbijdrage

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Auteurs		Top
Meire, D., meer Vos, G., meer Vanlede, J., meer Stark, J., meer

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Abstract

Sea level rise (SLR) poses many challenges to estuaries and their functioning (e.g. safety against flooding, ecological values, …). To tackle or mitigate these challenges, the Flemish government is developing Sigmaplan 3.0. In order to do so it is necessary to better understand the impact of SLR on tidal propagation in estuaries. The tidal propagation along the estuary is mainly determined by its geometry and morphology. SLR will not only influence the tidal characteristics but will also alter the morphodynamics of the system. By hydro-morphological feedback mechanisms, these morphological evolutions will in turn alter the hydrodynamics. Prediction of the future morphological evolution of the Scheldt estuary is extremely difficult as it depends on numerous factors (sediment availability, management options, rate of sea level rise, …). To circumvent these uncertainties, a sensitivity analysis is performed in which various potential morphological evolutions are prescribed (i.e., elevation increase of intertidal areas and/or subtidal channels as a fraction of SLR). This is done under different scenarios of SLR. The impact on tidal characteristics (i.e., evolution of high- and low water along the estuary, tidal asymmetry) is assessed for each of these scenarios using a complex 3D hydrodynamical model of the estuary (Scaldis in Telemac). Additionally, the sediment budgets of the different scenarios are compared and assessed using GIS analysis.

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