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| Multi-model approach to assess the impact of climate change on runoff Dams, J.; Nossent, J.; Senbeta, T.B.; Willems, P.; Batelaan, O. (2015). Multi-model approach to assess the impact of climate change on runoff. J. Hydrol. (Amst.) 529: 1601-1616. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.08.023
In: Journal of Hydrology. Elsevier: Tokyo; Oxford; New York; Lausanne; Shannon; Amsterdam. ISSN 0022-1694; e-ISSN 1879-2707, meer
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| Abstract |
Results show that the hydrological model structure introduces a large uncertainty on both the average monthly discharge and the extreme peak and low flow predictions under the climate change scenarios. For the low impact climate change scenario, the uncertainty range of the mean monthly runoff is comparable to the range of these runoff values in the reference period. However, for the mean and high impact scenarios, this range is significantly larger. The uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios is larger than the uncertainty due to the hydrological model structure for the low and mean hydrological impact scenarios, but the reverse is true for the high impact climate change scenario. The mean and high impact scenarios project increasing peak discharges, while the low impact scenario projects increasing peak discharges only for peak events with return periods larger than 1.6 years. All models suggest for all scenarios a decrease of the lowest flows, except for the SWAT model with the mean hydrological impact climate change scenario. The results of this study indicate that besides the uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios also the hydrological model structure uncertainty should be taken into account in the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology. To make it more straightforward and transparent to include model structural uncertainty in hydrological impact studies, there is a need for hydrological modelling tools that allow flexible structures and methods to validate model structures in their ability to assess impacts under unobserved future climatic conditions. |
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