Over het archief
Het OWA, het open archief van het Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium heeft tot doel alle vrij toegankelijke onderzoeksresultaten van dit instituut in digitale vorm aan te bieden. Op die manier wil het de zichtbaarheid, verspreiding en gebruik van deze onderzoeksresultaten, alsook de wetenschappelijke communicatie maximaal bevorderen.
Dit archief wordt uitgebouwd en beheerd volgens de principes van de Open Access Movement, en het daaruit ontstane Open Archives Initiative.
Basisinformatie over ‘Open Access to scholarly information'.
Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability
Defrance, D.; Ramstein, G.; Charbit, S.; Vrac, M.; Famien, A.M.; Sultan, B.; Swingedouw, D.; Dumas, C.; Gemenne, F.; Alvarez-Solas, J.; Vanderlinden, J.-P. (2017). Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 114(25): 6533-6538. https://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1619358114
In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. The Academy: Washington, D.C.. ISSN 0027-8424; e-ISSN 1091-6490, meer
|   |
| Trefwoord |
|
| Author keywords |
climate change; ice sheet melting; impact; vulnerability; Sahel |
| Auteurs | | Top |
- Defrance, D.
- Ramstein, G.
- Charbit, S.
- Vrac, M.
|
- Famien, A.M.
- Sultan, B.
- Swingedouw, D., meer
- Dumas, C.
|
- Gemenne, F.
- Alvarez-Solas, J.
- Vanderlinden, J.-P.
|
| Abstract |
The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensuing freshwater discharge coming from ice sheets could have significant impacts on global climate, and especially on the vulnerable tropical areas. During the last glacial.deglacial period, megadrought episodes were observed in the Sahel region at the time of massive iceberg surges, leading to large freshwater discharges. In the future, such episodes have the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the Sahelian agro-ecosystem. Using a climate modeling approach, we investigate this issue by superimposing on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) baseline experiment a Greenland flash melting scenario corresponding to an additional sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 3 m. Our model response to freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting reveals a significant decrease of the West African monsoon rainfall, leading to changes in agricultural practices. Combined with a strong population increase, described by different demography projections, important human migration flows could be potentially induced. We estimate that, without any adaptation measures, tens to hundreds million people could be forced to leave the Sahel by the end of this century. On top of this quantification, the sea level rise impact over coastal areas has to be superimposed, implying that the Sahel population could be strongly at threat in case of rapid Greenland melting. |
IMIS is ontwikkeld en wordt gehost door het VLIZ.
