Over het archief
Het OWA, het open archief van het Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium heeft tot doel alle vrij toegankelijke onderzoeksresultaten van dit instituut in digitale vorm aan te bieden. Op die manier wil het de zichtbaarheid, verspreiding en gebruik van deze onderzoeksresultaten, alsook de wetenschappelijke communicatie maximaal bevorderen.
Dit archief wordt uitgebouwd en beheerd volgens de principes van de Open Access Movement, en het daaruit ontstane Open Archives Initiative.
Basisinformatie over ‘Open Access to scholarly information'.
Future climatic changes: Are we entering an exceptionally long interglacial?
In: Climatic Change. Kluwer Academic: Dordrecht; Boston. ISSN 0165-0009; e-ISSN 1573-1480, meer
|  |
| Auteurs | | Top |
- Loutre, M.F.
- Berger, A., meer
|
|
|
| Abstract |
Various experiments have been conducted using the Louvain-la-Neuve two-dimensional Northern Hemisphere climate model (LLN 2-D NH) to simulate climate for the next 130 kyr into the future. Simulations start with values representing the present-day Northern Hemisphere ice sheet, using different scenarios for future CO2 concentrations. The sensitivity of the model to the initial size of the Greenland ice sheet, and to possible impacts of human activities, has also been tested. Most of the natural scenarios indicate that: (i) the climate is likely to experience a long lasting (similar to 50 kyr) interglacial; (ii) the next glacial maximum is expected to be most intense at around 100 kyr after present (AP), with a likely interstadial at similar to 60 kyr AP; and (iii) after 100 kyr AP continental ice rapidly melts, leading to an ice volume minimum 20 kyr later. However, the amplitude and, to a lesser extent, the timing of future climatic changes depend on the CO2 scenario and on the initial conditions related to the assumed present-day ice volume. According to our modelling experiments, man's activities over the next centuries may significantly affect the ice-sheet's behaviour for approximately the next 50 kyr. Finally, the existence of thresholds in CO2 and insolation, earlier shown to be significant for the past, is confirmed to be also important for the future. |
IMIS is ontwikkeld en wordt gehost door het VLIZ.
