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Intense atmospheric rivers can weaken ice shelf stability at the Antarctic Peninsula
Wille, J.D.; Favier, V.; Jourdain, N.C.; Kittel, C.; Turton, J.V.; Agosta, C.; Gorodetskaya, I.V.; Picard, G.; Codron, F.; Leroy-Dos Santos, C.; Amory, C.; Fettweis, X.; Blanchet, J.; Jomelli, V.; Berchet, A. (2022). Intense atmospheric rivers can weaken ice shelf stability at the Antarctic Peninsula. Commun. Earth Environ. 3: 90. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00422-9
In: Communications Earth & Environment. Springer Nature: London. ISSN 2662-4435; e-ISSN 2662-4435, meer
Peer reviewed article  
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  • Wille, J.D., redacteur
  • Favier, V.
  • Jourdain, N.C.
  • Kittel, C., meer
  • Turton, J.V.
  • Agosta, C., meer
  • Gorodetskaya, I.V., meer
  • Picard, G.
  • Codron, F.
  • Leroy-Dos Santos, C.
  • Amory, C., meer
  • Fettweis, X., meer
  • Blanchet, J.
  • Jomelli, V.
  • Berchet, A.
Abstract
    The disintegration of the ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula have spurred much discussion on the various processes leading to their eventual dramatic collapse, but without a consensus on an atmospheric forcing that could connect these processes. Here, using an atmospheric river detection algorithm along with a regional climate model and satellite observations, we show that the most intense atmospheric rivers induce extremes in temperature, surface melt, sea-ice disintegration, or large swells that destabilize the ice shelves with 40% probability. This was observed during the collapses of the Larsen A and B ice shelves during the summers of 1995 and 2002 respectively. Overall, 60% of calving events from 2000–2020 were triggered by atmospheric rivers. The loss of the buttressing effect from these ice shelves leads to further continental ice loss and subsequent sea-level rise. Under future warming projections, the Larsen C ice shelf will be at-risk from the same processes.
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