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Het OWA, het open archief van het Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium heeft tot doel alle vrij toegankelijke onderzoeksresultaten van dit instituut in digitale vorm aan te bieden. Op die manier wil het de zichtbaarheid, verspreiding en gebruik van deze onderzoeksresultaten, alsook de wetenschappelijke communicatie maximaal bevorderen.

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Climate-induced shifts in cod spawning phenology across the North Atlantic Pollet-Calderini, C.; Kirby, R.; Castant, J.; Leroy, M.; Robert, D.; Beaugrand, G. (2026). Climate-induced shifts in cod spawning phenology across the North Atlantic. NPG Scientific Reports 16(1): 13982. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-44116-0 In: Scientific Reports (Nature Publishing Group). Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 2045-2322; e-ISSN 2045-2322, meer

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Beschikbaar in	Auteurs
VLIZ: Open access 423427 [ download pdf ]

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Trefwoorden

Climate change Phenology Spawning Gadus morhua Linnaeus, 1758 [WoRMS] North Atlantic Ocean [Marine Regions]

Author keywords

Atlantic cod, Spawning, North Atlantic, Niche

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Auteurs		Top
Pollet-Calderini, C. Kirby, R., meer Castant, J.	Leroy, M. Robert, D. Beaugrand, G., meer

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Abstract

Spawning underpins fish stock regeneration. Here, we investigate climate effects on spawning phenology in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), a severely exploited species whose stocks are now also affected by climate change. For the first time, we model daily cod egg occurrences as a spawning proxy across the North Atlantic. With a concordance of 84% between our model and basin-scale observations, our results predict different climate change outcomes for western (eastern Newfoundland) and eastern (North Sea) stocks. In eastern Newfoundland where cod is at the centre of its thermal niche, a phenological shift in spawning was observed. In the warmer North Sea, such a phenological adjustment did not occur, leading to a substantial reduction in spawning. Our model explains fluctuations in the North Sea cod stock better than those in the Eastern Newfoundland stock, where unaccounted anthropogenic (overfishing) and environmental (trophodynamics) factors may have influenced cod abundance over the considered time series. Our results provide an improved understanding of how future climate change and other drivers interact in driving stock dynamics.

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