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3D density-dependent modelling of sea-level rise scenarios around De Haan (Belgium)
Van Meir, N.; Lebbe, L. (2002). 3D density-dependent modelling of sea-level rise scenarios around De Haan (Belgium), in: Boekelman, R.H. et al. (Ed.) Proceedings SWIM17 Delft 2002: Proceedings of the 17th Salt Water Intrusion Meeting, Delft 6-10 May 2002. pp. 73-81
In: Boekelman, R.H. et al. (Ed.) (2002). Proceedings SWIM17 Delft 2002: Proceedings of the 17th Salt Water Intrusion Meeting, Delft 6-10 May 2002. Delft University of Technology: Delft. ISBN 90-800089-8-2. 499 pp., meer
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Documenttype: Congresbijdrage
Trefwoorden
    Modelling
    Temporal variations > Long-term changes > Sea level changes
    De Haan [Marine Regions]
    Marien/Kust
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Abstract
    The results of a three-dimensional density-dependent simulation for a field area along the Belgian coastal plain are presented. The numerical model, MOCDENS3D, is used. The model has proven its value in several simulations for different parts of the Netherlands (Oude Essink 2001; Oude Essink 2001; Oude Essink 2002). The main achievement of this modelling exercise lies in the extensive description of a real field site, where the input is closely based on sediment distribution and geomorphology derived from drilling descriptions and geophysical bore logs. Parameter values for both groundwater flow and solute transport are based on quantitative results from a parameter identification test carried out within the boundaries of the field area. In this upconing test drawdown and concentration changes are simultaneously observed and are later jointly interpreted (Van Meir 2001). After a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the influence of model parameters, a first simulation models the existing freshwater-saltwater distribution using all gathered field data. A very good agreement between observed and modelled features allows a predictive simulation of three different sea-level rise scenarios for a time period of 500 years. The results demonstrate the influence of the sediment distribution and the geomorphology on the speed with which effective seawater intrusion will take place. As expected, both seepage and salt load will increase significantly as well.
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