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Het OWA, het open archief van het Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium heeft tot doel alle vrij toegankelijke onderzoeksresultaten van dit instituut in digitale vorm aan te bieden. Op die manier wil het de zichtbaarheid, verspreiding en gebruik van deze onderzoeksresultaten, alsook de wetenschappelijke communicatie maximaal bevorderen.

Dit archief wordt uitgebouwd en beheerd volgens de principes van de Open Access Movement, en het daaruit ontstane Open Archives Initiative.

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Mangrove dispersal disrupted by projected changes in global seawater density Van der Stocken, T.; Vanschoenwinkel, B.; Carroll, D.; Cavanaugh, K.C.; Koedam, N. (2022). Mangrove dispersal disrupted by projected changes in global seawater density. Nat. Clim. Chang. 12(7): 685-691. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01391-9 In: Nature Climate Change. Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 1758-678X; e-ISSN 1758-6798, meer Is gerelateerd aan: (2022). Mangrove forests are facing challenges from global seawater density changes. Nat. Clim. Chang. 12(7): 626-627. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01393-7, meer

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VLIZ: Non-open access 379608 [ aanvragen ]

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Van der Stocken, T., meer Vanschoenwinkel, B., meer Carroll, D.	Cavanaugh, K.C. Koedam, N., meer

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Abstract

The degree to which the distribution of mangrove forests will be impacted by climate change depends on the dispersal and establishment of sea-faring propagules, which drive forest rejuvenation, gene flow and range expansion. Climate change affects sea surface density via changes in temperature and salinity. However, these changes have not been mapped and it remains unclear how these factors may impact mangrove propagule dispersal. Here, we provide evidence for strong warming of coastal mangrove waters and elevated geographic variability in surface ocean density under representative concentration pathway RCP 8.5 by 2100. The largest changes will occur in the Indo West Pacific region, the primary hotspot of mangrove diversity. By comparing propagule densities to predicted sea surface density, we assessed potential effects on mangrove propagule dispersal. In the future, a warmer and fresher ocean is likely to alter dispersal trajectories of mangrove propagules and increase rates of sinking in unsuitable offshore locations, potentially reducing the resilience of mangrove forests.

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